Maybe this should be expected, as polls do tighten in the waning days of an election cycle, but this is different: we have a summer chock full of blue death coming for Republicans. The blue terminal is crashing, after a wild prediction that Democrats would get 230-plus seats in the House bolstered it for a bit. Then, the Midwest tightened up, leading Democrat operatives to acknowledge they weren’t as confident about a blue wave. This isn’t 2018.
The truth is we’re flying blind. It’s 50/50, because the polling isn’t reliable anymore. We have multiple fake poll controversies, all of which were explained away by the ‘this was a social experiment’ line. Still, we’re now getting stories that GOP voter support has been underestimated for most of a generation; that if it’s underestimated by two to three points, the GOP retains control; that Trump voters can’t be polled; and that the current climate isn’t being gauged properly. The pivot has begun, with the new Harris poll showing Democrats with only a four-point lead in the generic ballot— not enough to win.
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